MO-05 · House · 2026
Democrats are favored to win this seat
64% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Emanuel Cleaver
Democrat
Emanuel Cleaver II is an American politician and United Methodist pastor serving as the U.S. representative for Missouri's 5th congressional district since 2005.
Rick Brattin
Republican
Richard Ray Brattin Jr. is an American politician serving as a Republican state senator from Missouri, representing the 31st district, composing of Cass, Bates, Barton, Henry, and Vernon counties.
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 8 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16