MO-06 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
98% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Josh Smead
Democrat
Chris Stigall
Republican
Christopher Steven Stigall is an American politician, conservative talk radio personality, cable news contributor, online columnist and host of The Chris Stigall podcast.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Sam Graves, who is not running (retiring from public office).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 13 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Sam Graves) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16