MS-04 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Jeffrey Hulum III
Democrat
Mike Ezell
Republican
Walter Michael Ezell is an American former law enforcement officer and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Mississippi's 4th congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 21 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16