NC-10 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
94% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Ashley Bell
Democrat
Pat Harrigan
Republican
Patrick Luke Harrigan is an American politician, engineer, and former Army Special Forces officer serving as the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 10th congressional district since 2025.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 8 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16