NC-14 · House · 2026
Democrats are favored to win this seat
69% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Lakesha Womack
Democrat
Timothy K. Moore
Republican
Timothy Keith Moore is an American attorney and politician who has been the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 14th congressional district since 2025.
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 7 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16