NH-01 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
97% probability
Candidates
Candidates unconfirmed -- under review. This race's primary has passed but our roster does not yet have a confirmed name; a re-check has been queued.
Checked 2026-09-14 -- candidates could not be confirmed from the source at that time.
Not yet determined
Democrat
Not yet determined
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, Chris Pappas, who is not running (running for U.S. Senate).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 2 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat, Chris Pappas) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16