NJ-01 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Donald Norcross
Democrat
Donald W. Norcross is an American politician and labor leader who is the U.S. representative for New Jersey's 1st congressional district in South Jersey.
Damon Galdo
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 10 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16