NJ-05 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
98% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
Joshua S. Gottheimer is an American politician, attorney, writer, and public policy adviser serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey's 5th congressional district since 2017.
Sean Kirrane
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 2 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16