NJ-06 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
97% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Frank Pallone Jr.
Democrat
Frank Joseph Pallone Jr. is an American lawyer and politician serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey's 6th congressional district since 1988.
Hillary Herzig
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 4 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16