NJ-07 · House · 2026
Democrats have a slight edge to win this seat
58% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Rebecca Bennett
Democrat
Thomas Kean Jr.
Republican
Thomas Howard Kean Jr. is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey's 7th congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16