NJ-08 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
No Republican candidate qualified for this race. The win probability reflects the seat, not a two-party matchup.
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Robert Menendez
Democrat
Robert Menendez is an American former politician and lawyer who represented New Jersey in the United States Senate from 2006 until his resignation in 2024.
(none qualified)
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 21 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16