NJ-09 · House · 2026

Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat

92% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-09-14.

Nellie Pou

Democrat

92%

Nelida Avila Pou is an American politician and business administrator serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey's 9th congressional district since 2025.

Rosemary Pino

Republican

Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.

Why we think this

The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16