NM-01 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Melanie Ann Stansbury
Democrat
Melanie Ann Stansbury is an American politician and former ecology instructor serving as the U.S. representative for New Mexico's 1st congressional district since 2021.
Ndidiamaka Okpareke
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 5 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16