NY-19 · House · 2026

Democrats are favored to win this seat

70% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-09-14.

Josh Riley

Democrat

70%

Joshua Paul Riley is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the U.S. representative for New York's 19th congressional district since 2025.

Peter Oberacker

Republican

30%

Peter Karl Oberacker Jr. is an American businessman and politician.

Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 1 points of margin before anything else is considered.
The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16