NY-20 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Paul Tonko
Democrat
Paul David Tonko is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 20th congressional district since 2013.
Ralph Ambrosio
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 8 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16