NY-03 · House · 2026
Democrats are favored to win this seat
61% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Tom Suozzi
Democrat
Thomas Richard Suozzi is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 3rd congressional district since 2024 and previously from 2017 to 2023.
Michael LiPetri Jr.
Republican
Michael John LiPetri is an American Republican attorney and politician from New York State who served one term as a New York State Assemblyman from the 9th district from 2019 to 2021.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 1 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16