NY-07 · House · 2026

Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat

100% probability

Candidates

Party-level forecast. The nominee is not yet selected; the win probability reflects the seat, not a specific matchup.

Checked 2026-09-14 -- candidates could not be confirmed from the source at that time.

Claire Valdez

Democrat

100%

Claire Marie Valdez is an American politician who has served as a member of the New York State Assembly for the 37th district since 2025, representing part of the Borough of Queens.

Not yet determined

Republican

Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, Nydia Velazquez, who is not running (retiring from public office).

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 24 points of margin before anything else is considered.
This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat, Nydia Velazquez) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16