OH-03 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Joyce Beatty
Democrat
Joyce Marie Beatty, is an American politician serving as U.S. representative for Ohio's 3rd congressional district since 2013 and as chair of the Congressional Black Caucus from 2021 to 2023.
Cleophus Dulaney
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 21 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16