OH-04 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Joshua Kolasinski
Democrat
Jim Jordan
Republican
James Daniel Jordan is an American politician who has served in the U.S. House of Representatives as the representative for Ohio's 4th congressional district since 2007.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 21 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16