OH-09 · House · 2026
Democrats are strongly favored to win this seat
88% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Marcy Kaptur
Democrat
Marcia Carolyn Kaptur is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 9th congressional district since 1983.
Derek Merrin
Republican
Derek Scott Merrin is an American politician who previously served as the state representative for the 42nd District of the Ohio House of Representatives.
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 5 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16