PA-10 · House · 2026

Republicans have a slight edge to win this seat

54% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-09-14.

Janelle Stelson

Democrat

46%

Janelle Stelson is an American former television news anchor and politician.

Scott Perry

Republican

54%

Scott Gordon Perry is an American politician and retired Army National Guard brigadier general who is the U.S. representative for Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district, serving since 2013.

Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 2 points of margin before anything else is considered.
The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16