PA-11 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
94% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Nancy Mannion
Democrat
Lloyd Smucker
Republican
Lloyd Kenneth Smucker is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district, which includes Lancaster County and most of southern York County.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 10 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16