PA-03 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Party-level forecast. The nominee is not yet selected; the win probability reflects the seat, not a specific matchup.
Checked 2026-09-14 -- candidates could not be confirmed from the source at that time.
Christopher Rabb
Democrat
Not yet determined
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Democrat, Dwight Evans, who is not running (retiring from public office).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 40 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Democrat, Dwight Evans) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16