PA-08 · House · 2026

Democrats are strongly favored to win this seat

87% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-09-14.

Paige Cognetti

Democrat

87%

Paige Cognetti is an American politician serving since 2020 as mayor of Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Rob Bresnahan Jr.

Republican

13%

Robert Paul Bresnahan Jr. is an American politician and businessman serving as the United States representative for Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district since 2025.

Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 4 points of margin before anything else is considered.
The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16