SC-04 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Courtney McClain
Democrat
William Timmons
Republican
William Richardson Timmons IV is an American politician, prosecutor, and Air Force officer serving as the U.S. representative for South Carolina's 4th congressional district since 2019.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 12 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16