SD At-Large · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Nicole Gronli
Democrat
Marty Jackley
Republican
Martin Jacob Jackley is an American attorney and politician who is serving as the Attorney General of South Dakota since 2023, having previously served from 2009 to 2019.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Dusty Johnson, who is not running (running for governor).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 16 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Dusty Johnson) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16