TN-02 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Michaela Barnett
Democrat
Tim Burchett
Republican
Timothy Floyd Burchett is an American politician who is the U.S. representative for Tennessee's 2nd congressional district, based in Knoxville, serving since 2019.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 17 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16