TN-03 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
99% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Anna Golladay
Democrat
Charles J. Fleischmann
Republican
Charles Joseph Fleischmann is an American attorney and politician who has been the U.S. representative for Tennessee's 3rd congressional district since 2011.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 18 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16