TN-05 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
94% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Chaz Molder
Democrat
Charlie Hatcher
Republican
Charles Woodbridge Hatcher is an American dairy farmer who is the Republican Party nominee for Tennessee's 5th congressional district in the 2026 general election.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Andy Ogles, who is not running (lost primary).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 11 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Andy Ogles) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16