TN-07 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
95% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Darden Copeland
Democrat
Matt Van Epps
Republican
Matthew Robert Van Epps is an American politician and former Army officer serving as the U.S representative for Tennessee's 7th congressional district since December 2025.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 10 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09