TX-01 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Yolanda Prince
Democrat
Nathaniel Moran
Republican
Nathaniel Quentin Moran is an American politician and attorney who has served as the U.S. representative for Texas's 1st congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 24 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16