TX-11 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Claire Reynolds
Democrat
August Pfluger
Republican
August Lee Pfluger is an American politician and Air Force officer serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 11th congressional district since 2021.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 17 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16