TX-12 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
96% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Heli Rodriguez Prilliman
Democrat
Craig Goldman
Republican
Craig Alan Goldman is an American politician who is serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 12th congressional district since 2025.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 11 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- The Democratic candidate has no FEC filing of record -- there is no campaign-finance signal for this candidate yet.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16