TX-13 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Mark Nair
Democrat
Ronny L. Jackson
Republican
Ronny Lynn Jackson is an American physician, politician, and former United States Navy officer who has served as the U.S. representative for Texas's 13th congressional district since 2021.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 23 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16