TX-14 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
97% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Thurman Bill Bartie
Democrat
Randy Weber
Republican
Randall Keith Weber is an American businessman and politician who has represented Texas's 14th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives since 2013.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 12 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09