TX-15 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
88% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Bobby Pulido
Democrat
José Roberto Pulido Jr. is an American singer, songwriter, guitarist, actor, and political candidate.
Monica De La Cruz
Republican
Mónica de la Cruz is an American politician and insurance agent serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 15th congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 8 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16