TX-18 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Christian Menefee
Democrat
Christian Dashaun Menefee is an American politician and attorney who has been serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 18th congressional district since February 2026.
Ronald Whitfield
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 29 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
- The Republican candidate has no FEC filing of record -- there is no campaign-finance signal for this candidate yet.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16