TX-19 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
Kyle Rable
Democrat
Tom Sell
Republican
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Jodey Arrington, who is not running (retiring from public office).
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 25 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Jodey Arrington) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09