TX-23 · House · 2026
Republicans are strongly favored to win this seat
87% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Katy Padilla Stout
Democrat
Brandon Herrera
Republican
Brandon Joseph Herrera, also known as The AK Guy, is an American YouTuber, firearms manufacturer, and political candidate.
Open seat -- the current officeholder is a Republican, Tony Gonzales, who is not running (vacant_no_successor).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 7 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- This is an open seat: the current officeholder (a Republican, Tony Gonzales) is not on the ballot, which tends to make the race more competitive than a defended seat.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16