TX-28 · House · 2026
Democrats are strongly favored to win this seat
88% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Henry Cuellar
Democrat
Enrique Roberto "Henry" Cuellar is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 28th congressional district since 2005.
Tano Tijerina
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 5 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16