TX-03 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
96% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Evan Hunt
Democrat
Keith Self
Republican
Keith Alan Self is an American politician, military veteran, and former judge who has been the United States representative for Texas's 3rd congressional district since 2023.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 11 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16