TX-36 · House · 2026
Republicans are heavily favored to win this seat
97% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Rhonda Hart
Democrat
Brian Babin
Republican
Brian Philip Babin is an American dentist, politician and member of the Republican Party who has served as the U.S. representative from Texas's 36th congressional district since 2015.
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 12 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16