UT-01 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
93% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Ben McAdams
Democrat
Benjamin Michael McAdams is an American politician and attorney who served as the U.S. representative from Utah's 4th congressional district from 2019 to 2021.
Riley Owen
Republican
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 13 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16