VA-01 · House · 2026

Republicans are favored to win this seat

62% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-11-02.

Shannon Taylor

Democrat

38%

Robert J. Wittman

Republican

62%

Robert Joseph Wittman is an American politician and environmental health specialist serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 1st congressional district since 2007.

Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.

Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Republicans by about 2 points of margin before anything else is considered.
The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09