VA-11 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-11-02.
James Walkinshaw
Democrat
James Robert Walkinshaw is an American politician and former congressional aide serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 11th congressional district since September 2025.
Arthur Purves
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Fundraising as of 2026-10-14 (FEC filings).
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 19 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-11-09