VA-02 · House · 2026
Democrats have a slight edge to win this seat
59% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Elaine Luria
Democrat
Elaine Goodman Luria is an American politician and US Navy veteran who served as the U.S. representative from Virginia's 2nd congressional district from 2019 to 2023.
Jennifer Kiggans
Republican
Held by a Republican, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 1 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Republican, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16