VA-07 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
97% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Eugene Vindman
Democrat
Eugene Semyon Vindman is an American politician, lawyer, and retired U.S. Army officer serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 7th congressional district since 2025.
Douglas Ollivant
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 2 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16