VA-08 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr.
Democrat
Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr. is an American politician, businessman, and diplomat serving as the U.S. representative for Virginia's 8th congressional district since 2015.
Tony Sabio
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 26 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16