VT At-Large · House · 2026

Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat

100% probability

Candidates

Last verified 2026-09-14.

Becca Balint

Democrat

100%

Rebecca A. Balint is an American politician who is a member of the United States House of Representatives from Vermont's at-large congressional district as a member of the Democratic Party.

Gerald Malloy

Republican

Gerald Malloy is a former member of the South Carolina Senate, who represented the 29th District from 2002 to 2024.

Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.

Why we think this

This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 17 points of margin before anything else is considered.
The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.

Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.

Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16