WA-01 · House · 2026
Democrats are heavily favored to win this seat
100% probability
Candidates
Last verified 2026-09-14.
Suzan DelBene
Democrat
Suzan Kay DelBene is an American politician and businesswoman who has been the United States representative for Washington's 1st congressional district since 2012.
Mary Silva
Republican
Held by a Democrat, seeking re-election.
Why we think this
- This district's baseline partisan lean favors Democrats by about 16 points of margin before anything else is considered.
- The seat is currently held by a Democrat, who is running for re-election -- incumbents usually run ahead of their party's baseline.
Model details -- coefficients, calibration, and the full technical decomposition.
Model house-2026-panel-v1 · computed 2026-09-16